I am a great admirer of Richard Oldfield - read his book to understand why. This is the first of his letters which I have read, but I was immediately struck by his humility and ability to praise his competitors:
... past decade has been grim in relative performance. We do not usually mention other investment firms, but this time we will: we take our hat off to those who have captured the wave, with prescience and boldness, such as Baillie Gifford; and to firms like Ruffer which stuck to its cautious guns for several years and this year consolidated an excellent long-term record by imaginative positioning
On value (their bent) vs growth:
Our experience is that this tends to be a tail-end stage and suggests that we are drawing very close to the time when once more valuation matters.
On growth stocks fuelled by low rates:
..after 40 years of more or less uninterrupted declines in interest rates we feel that we are in a multi-year period in which they will bottom out and begin to rise, accompanying a rise in inflation
And on how we got here........
As Ruffer have pointed out, since 2007 the MSCI World Index excluding the US returned 0.8% per annum, while the MSCI US Index returned 8% per annum..........corporate profits in the US have been flat since 2011. Earnings per share have risen because of share buybacks – ...Most of the recent years rise in the US market has therefore been due to a rerating – ever higher valuations – benefiting from zero interest rates and quantitative easing. We may enter soon a new phase in which valuation matters.
If this resonates, we have linked one of his video interviews in another post. To see the full letter, check Investor Letters Q3 20 - there are lots of good ones.