Steve Clapham
Financial Training for Serious Investors
I am a former hedge fund equity analyst. I now train professional equity analysts, credit analysts and protfolio managers in forensic accounting and in depth analysis. And this training is now available to private investors.
I am a great admirer of Richard Oldfield - read his book to understand why. This is the first of his letters which I have read, but I was immediately struck by his humility and ability to praise his competitors:
... past decade has been grim in relative performance. We do not usually mention other investment firms, but this time we will: we take our hat off to those who have captured the wave, with prescience and boldness, such as Baillie Gifford; and to firms like Ruffer which stuck to its cautious guns for several years and this year consolidated an excellent long-term record by imaginative positioningÂ
On value (their bent) vs growth:
Our experience is that this tends to be a tail-end stage and suggests that we are drawing very close to the time when once more valuation matters.Â
On growth stocks fuelled by low rates:
..after 40 years of more or less uninterrupted declines in interest rates we feel that we are in a multi-year period in which they will bottom out and begin to rise, accompanying a rise in inflationÂ
And on how we got here........
As Ruffer have pointed out, since 2007 the MSCI World Index excluding the US returned 0.8% per annum, while the MSCI US Index returned 8% per annum..........corporate profits in the US have been flat since 2011. Earnings per share have risen because of share buybacks – ...Most of the recent years rise in the US market has therefore been due to a rerating – ever higher valuations – benefiting from zero interest rates and quantitative easing. We may enter soon a new phase in which valuation matters.Â
If this resonates, we have linked one of his video interviews in another post. To see the full letter, check Investor Letters Q3 20 - there are lots of good ones.
I am a great admirer of Richard Oldfield - read his book to understand why. This is the first of his letters which I have read, but I was immediately struck by his humility and ability to praise his competitors:
... past decade has been grim in relative performance. We do not usually mention other investment firms, but this time we will: we take our hat off to those who have captured the wave, with prescience and boldness, such as Baillie Gifford; and to firms like Ruffer which stuck to its cautious guns for several years and this year consolidated an excellent long-term record by imaginative positioningÂ
On value (their bent) vs growth:
Our experience is that this tends to be a tail-end stage and suggests that we are drawing very close to the time when once more valuation matters.Â
On growth stocks fuelled by low rates:
..after 40 years of more or less uninterrupted declines in interest rates we feel that we are in a multi-year period in which they will bottom out and begin to rise, accompanying a rise in inflationÂ
And on how we got here........
As Ruffer have pointed out, since 2007 the MSCI World Index excluding the US returned 0.8% per annum, while the MSCI US Index returned 8% per annum..........corporate profits in the US have been flat since 2011. Earnings per share have risen because of share buybacks – ...Most of the recent years rise in the US market has therefore been due to a rerating – ever higher valuations – benefiting from zero interest rates and quantitative easing. We may enter soon a new phase in which valuation matters.Â
If this resonates, we have linked one of his video interviews in another post. To see the full letter, check Investor Letters Q3 20 - there are lots of good ones.
In the Q3 20 letter, Loeb, while recognising risks, is bullish on the economic outlook post Covid:
 Assuming a reasonable expectation of a vaccine early next year, we could see the level of US GDP return to its preCOVID level in the middle of 2021 with a possible fiscal stimulus bill in the first half providing further impetus.Â
 One of the investment themes in our How to Pick Winning Stocks and Analyst Academy courses is Investing with Billionaires. We highlight the risks and the opportunities. The latest edition of the UBS Billionaires report is just out. It includes some interesting stats on the development of this elite global group:
"..billionaire wealth grew fastest of all in Asia. By early April 2020, there were 389 Chinese billionaires, worth a total of USD 1.2 trillion. Their wealth had grown by almost nine times, compared with twice in the US. "
Worth a few minutes for a quick scan.
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"..billionaire wealth grew fastest of all in Asia. By early April 2020, there were 389 Chinese billionaires, worth a total of USD 1.2 trillion. Their wealth had grown by almost nine times, compared with twice in the US. "
Worth a few minutes for a quick scan.
Â
One of the investment themes in our How to Pick Winning Stocks and Analyst Academy courses is Investing with Billionaires. We highlight the risks and the opportunities. The latest edition of the UBS Billionaires report is just out. It includes some interesting stats on the development of this elite global group:
"..billionaire wealth grew fastest of all in Asia. By early April 2020, there were 389 Chinese billionaires, worth a total of USD 1.2 trillion. Their wealth had grown by almost nine times, compared with twice in the US. "
Worth a few minutes for a quick scan.
"..billionaire wealth grew fastest of all in Asia. By early April 2020, there were 389 Chinese billionaires, worth a total of USD 1.2 trillion. Their wealth had grown by almost nine times, compared with twice in the US. "
Worth a few minutes for a quick scan.
A shout out for some useful free resources:
Koyfin - poor man's Bloomberg. Pretty good and even better that it's free.
Unhedged - more free tools, useful for transcripts etc
Dataroma - what are the superinvestors doing?
Docoh - calendar of upcoming results for a watchlist plus more
Tactyc - visualisations of useful company valuations & sensitivities
Koyfin - poor man's Bloomberg. Pretty good and even better that it's free.
Unhedged - more free tools, useful for transcripts etc
Dataroma - what are the superinvestors doing?
Docoh - calendar of upcoming results for a watchlist plus more
Tactyc - visualisations of useful company valuations & sensitivities
Coho Capital always write great letters - Jake Rosser's analysis of Spotify is impressive and worth 20 minutes of your time - check it out in the Library.
I was thrilled to be invited as one of the first guests on a new TV channel from famed short seller, Carson Block. I spoke about the accounting techniques which one can use to detect frauds like Patisserie Valerie. My clip is here.
This will be something to watch I think, as the channel should attract some really high quality presenters (they had to start somewhere!), and it's incredibly professionally presented. Check out the graphic, translating my admittedly idiomatic chat.
This was filmed in my living room, using my iPhone, would you believe with a link to New York. They have zoomed right in, and while I thought I was standing in front of appropriate content - you can just make out Freakonomics over my right shoulder - I hadn't realised that Robert Parker's Wine Guide and BBC1 Formula 1 commentator Murray Walker's autobiography stood out quite so much.
This channel is one to watch I am sure and I imagine it will be free, but I am speaking to them next week so will learn more of their plans.
This will be something to watch I think, as the channel should attract some really high quality presenters (they had to start somewhere!), and it's incredibly professionally presented. Check out the graphic, translating my admittedly idiomatic chat.
This was filmed in my living room, using my iPhone, would you believe with a link to New York. They have zoomed right in, and while I thought I was standing in front of appropriate content - you can just make out Freakonomics over my right shoulder - I hadn't realised that Robert Parker's Wine Guide and BBC1 Formula 1 commentator Murray Walker's autobiography stood out quite so much.
This channel is one to watch I am sure and I imagine it will be free, but I am speaking to them next week so will learn more of their plans.
I was thrilled to be invited as one of the first guests on a new TV channel from famed short seller, Carson Block. I spoke about the accounting techniques which one can use to detect frauds like Patisserie Valerie. My clip is here.
This will be something to watch I think, as the channel should attract some really high quality presenters (they had to start somewhere!), and it's incredibly professionally presented. Check out the graphic, translating my admittedly idiomatic chat.
This was filmed in my living room, using my iPhone, would you believe with a link to New York. They have zoomed right in, and while I thought I was standing in front of appropriate content - you can just make out Freakonomics over my right shoulder - I hadn't realised that Robert Parker's Wine Guide and BBC1 Formula 1 commentator Murray Walker's autobiography stood out quite so much.
This channel is one to watch I am sure and I imagine it will be free, but I am speaking to them next week so will learn more of their plans.
This will be something to watch I think, as the channel should attract some really high quality presenters (they had to start somewhere!), and it's incredibly professionally presented. Check out the graphic, translating my admittedly idiomatic chat.
This was filmed in my living room, using my iPhone, would you believe with a link to New York. They have zoomed right in, and while I thought I was standing in front of appropriate content - you can just make out Freakonomics over my right shoulder - I hadn't realised that Robert Parker's Wine Guide and BBC1 Formula 1 commentator Murray Walker's autobiography stood out quite so much.
This channel is one to watch I am sure and I imagine it will be free, but I am speaking to them next week so will learn more of their plans.
I subscribed to the Wall Street Journal when it took over distribution of the Daily Shot. It's a comprehensive daily round up of economic news in chart form. It takes a few minutes to read and I always learn something. Author Lev has now set up on his own and is charging $135 for an annual subscription. He has kindly offered $27 off to my members.
 A sample Daily Shot is available here and you can sign up here using the coupon code TDSSC920. Make sure you hit the button APPLY.
Hope you enjoy it. Â Â Â
 A sample Daily Shot is available here and you can sign up here using the coupon code TDSSC920. Make sure you hit the button APPLY.
Hope you enjoy it. Â Â Â